GPU 能保值吗？

GPU 能持续赚钱的时间，远长于它能维持小时费率的时间。一张 2020 年的卡在 2029 年仍有签约收入，NVIDIA 也表示这些卡如今处于满负荷使用状态，但它每小时的价格波动剧烈：从 2023 年的稀缺高峰下跌约 80%，随后回升。寿命长，价格波动大。

H100 每小时的价格变化

一款 2020 年发布的 GPU，收入已签约到 2029 年，赚钱寿命长达九年。: “CoreWeave signed a contract for Nvidia A100 GPUs that runs into 2029, nine years after the Ampere SKU debuted.” (Mike Intrator，CoreWeave CEO，于第二季度财报电话会上)
NVIDIA 表示，六年前的芯片并没有闲置，而是处于满负荷使用状态。: “Thanks to CUDA, the A100 GPUs we shipped six years ago are still running at full utilization today, powered by a vastly improved software stack.” (Colette Kress，NVIDIA CFO)
合同到期的硬件会以接近原价的价格重新出租，而不是打折出租。: “A batch of H100s coming off an expired contract was immediately rebooked at 95% of the original price.” (Mike Intrator，CoreWeave CEO，接受 CNBC 采访时)
决定退役日期的是软件栈而不是芯片本身：CUDA 兼容性让老卡继续留在机群中。: “CUDA's compatibility and our massive installed base extend the life in our systems well beyond their original estimated useful life.” (Colette Kress，NVIDIA CFO)

一位知名卖空者认为，六年折旧表是会计处理而不是工程事实，行业因此高估了利润。: “Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings.” (Michael Burry，他估计 2026 至 2028 年间这一影响在各超大规模云厂商合计达 $176bn)
有一家超大规模云厂商反向而行：Amazon 以 AI 硬件的发展速度为由，把部分服务器的使用寿命从六年“缩短”为五年。: “An increased pace of technology development, particularly in the area of artificial intelligence and machine learning.” (Amazon，于 2 月提交的一份文件中)
当代显卡的租赁费率可能跌得又快又狠。随着供应跟上，H100 的小时价格从 2023 年的稀缺高峰崩落。: “Rental costs dropped from $8 per hour in 2023 to $1–$2 in 2024 and 2025 due to oversupply.”
NVIDIA 大约每年推出一代新架构，比上述任何折旧年限都快。